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Encore
A blog about living in and planning for retirement

4 Reasons Boomers Need Bigger Nest Eggs than Their Parents

Alicia Munnell, the director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, is a weekly contributor to “Encore.”

People often ask how baby boomers compare with their parents in terms of being prepared for retirement.  The easiest way to answer that question is to look at the ratio of wealth to income from the Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), the Federal Reserve’s comprehensive survey of household wealth in the United States.  The notion is that the wealth-to-income ratio is a good proxy for the extent to which people can replace their pre-retirement earnings in retirement.  From 1983 through 2007, the period during which the surveys were conducted, the ratio of wealth to income has remained virtually unchanged at any given age. That is, the lines are roughly on top of one another.

At first glance, this regularity seems comforting, suggesting that the boomers and the cohorts that follow are as well prepared for retirement as their parents.  But that conclusion is wrong.  For while the boomers have been accumulating wealth at much the same pace as their parents, the world has changed in four important ways.

1) The prevalence of defined benefit pension plans has declined dramatically over the last 25 years.  Defined benefit plans and 401(k) plans are treated very differently in the Survey of Consumer Finances.  Accruals of future benefits under defined benefit plans are not included, because they are very difficult to value on an annual basis.  On the other hand, the buildup of assets in 401(k) plans is included.  Thus, the wealth reported in the 1983 SCF significantly understated the well-being of the participants because they had a lot of defined benefit “wealth” that was not reported.  The shift from unreported to reported pension accruals would have been expected to increase the wealth-to-income ratio, but instead the ratio remained stable.

2) Real interest rates have fallen significantly, so a given amount of wealth will now produce less retirement income.  If people were interested in generating a given stream of income, the significant decline in interest rates since 1983 would have been expected to boost wealth accumulations.  But it did not.

3) Life expectancy has increased, so accumulated assets must support a longer period of retirement.  Since 1983, life expectancy at age 65 has increased by 3.5 years for men and 1.8 years for women. As a result, for any given level of income one would have expected workers to accumulate more wealth in order to support themselves over their longer period in retirement. But, the pattern of wealth to income by age has been remarkably stable.

4) Health care costs have risen substantially and show signs of further increase, indicating a need for greater accumulation of retirement assets.  Even older Americans, who have Medicare to cover a large share of their medical bills, have seen out-of-pocket expenditures increase significantly.  The rising cost of health care relative to Social Security is one more reason why people should have higher wealth-to-income ratios today than in the past to maintain their standard of living in retirement. In short, the world has changed in four important ways since the 1983 Survey of Consumer Finances.  Each of these changes would have been expected to lead to higher wealth-to-income ratios if people were aiming to preserve their standard of living in retirement.  Instead, the pattern of wealth accumulation has remained virtually unchanged. The phenomenon suggests that people are increasingly less prepared for retirement.

Comments

We welcome thoughtful comments from readers. Please comply with our guidelines. Our blogs do not require the use of your real name.

Comments (5 of 6)

View all Comments »
    • As a baby boomer this is a great post. The biggest challenge here when I talk to my parent, they have no idea on the flow of money and unfortunately the miss truth from the people they have always respected like your politicians and bankers….

    • Angry comments, though the problem has little to do with what is happening even in the last 10 years. Besides the 4 reasons cited, I’d add under-saving and overspending and debt to the list of unpreparedness

    • Don’t forget how Obama is starving older people: zero increase in their Social Security except election years; almost-zero interest earnings on savings negative after inflation and taxes; his pals such as GE’s Immelt sending jobs that could support older relatives abroad; wealth transfers to the commercial and investment banks via bailouts; cutbacks in Medicare payments to doctors and raising the cost of Medicare to participants if they have enough income to just get buy. Obamaites want this country to be like Britain, whose socialized medicine puts a high priority on young people and wants oldsters to die peacefully and not collect their pensions and burden the National Health. Germany had a similar goal in the 1934-44 years (cannot say A.H. their leader here or the TSA will disappear me.)

    • obama’s COMMUNITARIANISM infects his followers and a few million more.
      Personal responsibility?
      Merry Christmas to Frog and Peter 1520!

    • I’m not a big fan of absolute statements, like Mike made before me. That being said, it is indeed likely that less wealth will be transferred to the next generation than has been in the past. I don’t know if I’d completely blame the boomers for a lack of planning for health care though. I seriously doubt that most of them had any idea how messed up things would get, at least until very recently. My parents, and my wife’s parents, (all in their late 60′s and retired) are all in good health, and in good financial shape, but that’s no guarantee that I’ll see a big inheritance in the next 20 years. If so, it would be a bonus to my own planning, but it’s not being counted on. Neither am I including having to PAY for anything for our parents, which could certainly happen, even if it doesn’t look likely at this point.

About Encore

  • Encore examines the changing nature of retirement, from new rules and guidelines for financial security to the shifting identities and priorities of today’s retirees. The blog also explores news that affects retirement, from the Wall Street Journal Digital Network and around the web. Lead bloggers are reporter Catey Hill and senior editor Jeremy Olshan. Other contributors include The Wall Street Journal’s retirement columnists Glenn Ruffenach and Anne Tergesen; the Director for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Alicia Munnell; and the Director of Research for Pinnacle Advisory Group, Michael Kitces, CFP.

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Low Interest 11.96% 11.88% 11.62%
Business 13.12% 13.11% 12.85%
Student 13.42% 13.42% 13.14%
Balance Transfer 14.35% 14.30% 14.12%
Airline 15.17% 15.16% 15.10%
Cash Back 15.26% 15.23% 15.27%
Reward 15.28% 15.25% 15.14%
Instant Approval 18.21% 18.18% 18.00%
Bad Credit 22.88% 22.88% 22.73%
Source:CreditCards.com

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