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The Stock Market Has Been Kind to Boomers

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Alicia Munnell, the director of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, is a weekly contributor to “Encore.”

When the stock market tumbled almost 5% in early August, thoughts hearkened back to the market collapse when equity prices fell 57% from October 9, 2007 to March 9, 2009.  Much of the losses in equity values occurred in 401(k)s and IRAs held by Early Boomers approaching retirement.  Those already retired were more reliant on traditional defined benefit plans for retirement income and therefore held relatively modest 401(k) balances.  Late Boomers had smaller balances than their older counterparts, and Gen Xers had not yet accumulated substantial 401(k) assets.  Therefore, not surprisingly, the decline in equity values experienced by older workers received an enormous amount of attention.

As jarring as the financial collapse and today’s gyrations may be for the Early Boomers, the market has actually treated them well over their lifetime.  In an earlier study, which I have updated for this blog, we estimated the internal rate of return for three hypothetical employees who were age 30 (Gen Xer), 40 (Late Boomer), and 50 (Early Boomer) in 1999.  All three employees began contributing 6% to their 401(k) at age 30, and their employers made a matching contribution of 3%.  The employees’ starting salary was based on median earnings for those 30, 40, and 50 with 401(k)s, as reported in the Federal Reserve’s 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances.  Nominal salary growth was estimated at 3.3%.

The results show that Early Boomers have come out well ahead of subsequent cohorts.  Despite the financial collapse, Early Boomers have earned an average annual return of 9.7% on an all-equity portfolio between age 30 to July 2011, a return roughly equal to the historic benchmark.  The comparable numbers are 6.9% for Late Boomers and 3.7% for Gen Xers (see Table). The pattern is similar for accounts with half equities and half bonds.

Table. Rates of Return on Total 401(k) Balances for Three Hypothetical Workers, from Age 30 to July 2011

Investment Mix Gen Xer

(30 in 1999)

Late Boomer

(40 in 1999)

Early Boomer

(50 in 1999)

All equities 3.7 6.9 9.7
Half equities/half bonds 6.9 8.5 10.3

This agreeable outcome for Early Boomers is the result of these workers accumulating substantial assets during the long bull market that began in 1982 and ended in 2000.  Late Boomers and Gen Xers never benefited fully from the 1982-2000 market expansion and were hard hit by two market collapses.

The question is how much younger cohorts would have to earn going forward to end up with the same ratio of assets to income at age 60 currently enjoyed by the Early Boomers.  Our calculations suggest that stocks would have to average a nominal compound return of 13.2% for the Late Boomers and 11.2% for the Gen Xers, who have more time until retirement.  The returns required for both the Late Boomers and Gen Xers may not be impossible, but they are certainly on the high side of average.

In short, subsequent generations are going to have to save more than the Early Boomers to be as well off.   The only immediate way to help these later cohorts is to make sure that 401(k) auto-enrollment and savings escalation policies cover existing workers as well as new hires.

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    • The pre-Boomers (War Babies) got the best treatment from the stock market and the worst from the mortgage rate market. However, the stock market was still not popular in 1982, so fewer actually benefited than could have. But we all paid well over 8% on home mortgages. I paid 8.5% on a “special” state-sponsored mortgage for those qualifying on paper but for whom life would have been difficult paying almost 10% for a bank mortgage. Anyway, I invested too in an IRA and 401k, paid off the mortgage at under 7% in 1993, and am living happily ever after in a house bought for cash.

    • I think your article assumes far too much….what about the earlest boomers who could not to afford to invest until their 40′s or 50′s when in the prime of highest earnings….many of us invested heavily to make up….we are paying for the mistakes of those who now hold out their hand and want me to bail them out.

    • Probably not, but it would have been an interesting comparison; it does mean that with the 50/50 mix you could have taken on less risk, slept better at night, and earned more in the end…the beauty of diversification.

    • I believe what’s more surprising is that the theoretical portfolios made up of half bonds and equities came out with a higher return for all 3 different generations. Does that mean that only bonds and no equities would have been even higher?

About Encore

  • Encore examines the changing nature of retirement, from new rules and guidelines for financial security to the shifting identities and priorities of today’s retirees. The blog also explores news that affects retirement, from the Wall Street Journal Digital Network and around the web. Lead bloggers are reporter Catey Hill and senior editor Jeremy Olshan. Other contributors include The Wall Street Journal’s retirement columnists Glenn Ruffenach and Anne Tergesen; the Director for the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, Alicia Munnell; and the Director of Research for Pinnacle Advisory Group, Michael Kitces, CFP.

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