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The Devil in the House Price Data

Home prices are rising, experts say, but not as much as some reports may suggest. And to maintain a realistic view of any real-estate recovery, it may be wise to err on the conservative side.

Andy Dean Photography / Shutterstock.com

Prices rose by 1.2% in July over the year-earlier period, and 1.6% over the previous month, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index released Tuesday. Housing analysts are generally greeting this as good news, but it looks pallid compared to the most recent National Association of Realtors survey, which came out last week. That report estimated that the median sales price of existing homes rose 9.5% in the 12 months to August 2012, strongest increase since January 2006. July’s NAR report showed a similarly large gain.

“Both reports show that there’s definitely more buying and selling of houses,” says Susan M. Wachter, professor of real estate and finance at Wharton University of Pennsylvania. “The market is stabilizing.”

But some analysts say that the NAR report may present a too-rosy view of that market. Case-Shiller house prices are historically slightly more conservative than price data from the NAR, mostly because the report adjusts for the size of homes being sold, while the NAR’s price index does not. The result is that NAR’s numbers jump when homes at the high end of the market sell strongly, and lately, larger and more expensive homes have been selling particularly well, says Jed Kolko, chief economist at real estate listing site Trulia. “This is why the NAR median sales price has risen so much more than other indexes.”

In fact, the market for those expensive homes has seen a big turnaround this year. In August, the sales of high-priced homes valued at between $250,000 and $750,000, as well as of those over $1 million, increased by some 25% on the year, according to the NAR. “The higher end of the housing market is playing catch-up,” Wachter says. “People are getting the prices they want.”

But fewer homes at the lower end of the market have been selling in recent months – meaning that housing’s recovery isn’t being felt as strongly in some of the communities where the slump hit the hardest.  That’s why many economists currently see the Case-Shiller index as the more important gauge of the housing market’s overall health. When mid-priced homes start selling better, experts say that’ll be a sign that both the overall economy and the real-estate market are getting better. “People got slammed on equity during the recession,” says Stuart A. Gabriel, director of UCLA’s Richard S. Ziman Center for Real Estate. “But as the recovery continues more people will start to accrue equity in their homes and will be able to trade up.”

The housing market may face some additional hidden headwinds. House prices have been helped in recent months by the dearth of foreclosure properties on market, but some analysts say that won’t last. The number of foreclosure filings fell 15% in August from the year-earlier level, according to RealtyTrac’s most recent report, but that firm says this is due to delays in the foreclosure process. “We’re seeing recent increases in foreclosure activity in many states like Florida, Illinois, New York and New Jersey that will likely result in more distressed sales in the next six to 12 months,” says Daren Bloomquist, vice-president at RealtyTrac.

For those with a deeper interest in real-estate minutiae, there are other key differences in the house price reports. The NAR measures prices on a monthly basis and gives estimates for the previous month, while Case-Shiller bases its estimates on a three-month moving average and has a two-month time lag. The NAR covers 156 metro areas; Case-Shiller only tracks 20 cities. Case-Shiller tracks price changes of the same properties, which gives a more accurate picture, says Sofia Song, vice-president of real estate site StreetEasy.com.  “But from an investor’s perspective both reports are worth reading.”

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      Samsung Corby 2 or S3850 – Call of Duty: Modern Warfare + Radioactive Icons Themes
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      "I am using the onmouseover effect and I can’t get the link to work. I need some help with the code.?" – Find the answer to this question and millions more on Yahoo! UK & Ireland Answers.
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      I am using the onmouseover effect and I can’t get the link to work. I need some help with the code.?
      I have created a webpage for my ICT AS coursework. I am using the onmouseover effect and I can’t get the link to work. I need some help with the code. Basically this is a product advertising Minecraft and the issue is before the on mouse over effect the link worked but now I have added it, I need to make sure that the over image is linked but I cant work out where to put the HREF. This is a whole page of 6 images all with on mouseover images and I just need to now where to pop it in?
      Here’s the code:
      <!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Transitional//EN" "w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-…
      <html xmlns="w3.org/1999/xhtml">
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      <input type="image" src="multimedia/buttons/minecraft_button… "a href="Intro.html" onmouseover="this.src=’multimedia/button… onmouseout="this.src=’multimedia/buttons…
      i think this is your problem but this is only a guess as learning from a book from the library myself.
      the invert comma should not be before a href thanks
      if not then google plus me at ianmccully i am sure i can get you someone to solve this thanks ian.
      or you may need a < before the a href thanks
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New York Markets Open in:

Futures: /quotes/zigman/30356461/delayed S&P 500 +0.3% /quotes/zigman/38649152/delayed DOW +0.4% /quotes/zigman/30356458/delayed NASDAQ +0.4%

need to know
Campbell Soup beats profit expectations
Medtronic profit and sales top estimates
Acadia eyes FDA OK on Parkinson's pyschosis
L Brands August sales climb above forecasts
Ciena beats profit estimates, misses on sales
Costco same-store sales rise significantly
Europe markets rise | FTSE 100 heads for gain
Treasury's Lew irked by China's FX move
Rio Tinto sees solid demand for iron ore, steel
Novartis to begin selling Neupogen copy in U.S.
Asian shares rise; China closed for holiday

5 things to watch at today’s ECB meeting

ECB forecasts to come under close scrutiny
French jobless rate holds steady at 10.3%


Why India is worth a look if you’re cooling on China

Video: Watch China’s 90-minute military parade in 60 seconds
Watch China’s    90-minute parade in 60 seconds
China markets close for war anniversary

Liberal arts majors may become a thing of the past
They tangled with student debt all summer
College help for low-income families

43% of U.S. homes are at high risk of natural disaster
43% of U.S. homes are at high risk of natural disaster

Caroline Baum: No one knows what Trump would do as president, but it’d be great!
No one knows what Trump would do as president
Trump, Clinton play liar’s poker: Delamaide

Bill Gross calls a Fed rate hike ‘too little, too late’
FDIC chief: Rates may catch banks off-guard
Junk-bond stress level climbs to 5-year high

History’s lessons in surviving market crashes

Apple’s biggest challenge: Topping the iPhone 6
Apple set to join content contest
What to expect from the Apple event on Sept. 9

Almond milk and other notable Fed nuggets

Fed Beige Book finds rising wage pressures

Why gold now looks more risky than stocks
Why gold now looks more risky than stocks: Reeves
Still too many gold market bulls: Mark Hulbert

GoPro’s stock rocked by supplier’s outlook

Intel hopes its chip retool can revive PC sales

Growing doubts among Viacom investors lead to 50% stock drop
Growing doubts among Viacom investors
Hulu rolls out ad-free option for $11.99 a month
Digital subscriptions can exceed our cable bills

Guide to managing money from your 20s to your 70s
Guide to managing money from your 20s to your 70s
How estate planning can be stress-free
Take your company pension, or buy an annuity?
Is this all the investing advice you’ll ever need?

Clinton's $10 billion anti-drug-addiction plan

10 cities in U.S. with the very worst traffic problems
Lowest Labor Day gas prices in 11 years: AAA
/conga/frontpage.html 354028

Markets »

133.48MDow Volume:
Avg Vol: 113.01M
Unchanged
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Decliners
1922
Advancers
4480
Price Chg %Chg 1 Day
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Dow
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/quotes/zigman/16008115/realtime/sampled 0.70 0.00 0.51%
DXY Index
/quotes/zigman/1652083/delayed 95.81 -0.17 0.18%
WSJ $ Idx
/quotes/zigman/41508961/realtime 88.63 +0.08 0.09%
U.S. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866666/realtime 2.17 -0.02 0.81%
German 10y
/quotes/zigman/15866409/realtime 0.77 -0.01 1.38%
Italy 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866497/realtime 1.97 -0.02 1.16%
Spain 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866444/realtime 2.14 0.00 0.18%
U.K. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866328/realtime 1.81 -0.01 0.57%
Japan 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866525/realtime 0.40 +0.00 0.13%
Crude Oil
/quotes/zigman/2331095/delayed 46 0 0.00%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/662444/delayed 1,128 -6 0.54%
Corn
/quotes/zigman/7599553/delayed 366 -2 0.48%
DJIA F
/quotes/zigman/38649152/delayed 16,388 +58 0.36%
S&P F
/quotes/zigman/30356461/delayed 1,954 +7 0.34%
Silver
/quotes/zigman/3134148/delayed 15 +0 0.05%

Quotes

Symbol Price Change % Change
FB /quotes/zigman/9962609/composite 89.89 2.66 3.05%
AAPL /quotes/zigman/68270/composite 112.34 4.62 4.29%
GOOG /quotes/zigman/30194416/composite 614.34 16.55 2.77%
BAC /quotes/zigman/190927/composite 15.85 0.32 2.06%
C /quotes/zigman/5065548/composite 51.75 0.81 1.59%
F /quotes/zigman/264304/composite 13.87 0.15 1.09%
T /quotes/zigman/398198/composite 32.82 0.50 1.55%
BP /quotes/zigman/247026/composite 32.20 0.06 0.19%
GE /quotes/zigman/227468/composite 24.57 0.69 2.89%
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Rates »

5 yr CD
1.5%
2 yr CD
0.8%
1 yr CD
0.6%
MMA $10K+
0.3%
MMA $50K+
0.4%

National averages from Bankrate.com

You Don’t Need Another Credit Card, You Need A Better One.
Avg. APR Last Week 6 Months
Low Interest 11.62% 11.62% 11.53%
Business 12.85% 12.85% 12.85%
Student 13.14% 13.14% 13.14%
Balance Transfer 14.12% 14.12% 14.00%
Airline 15.10% 15.10% 15.15%
Reward 15.14% 15.14% 14.99%
Cash Back 15.27% 15.27% 15.26%
Instant Approval 18.00% 18.00% 17.93%
Bad Credit 22.73% 22.73% 22.48%
Source:CreditCards.com

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