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What the Jobs Numbers Mean for Real Estate

The most recent job numbers may be disappointing in more ways than one: Payroll numbers will need to more than double their current growth rate before a full housing recovery can occur, economists say.

Andy Dean Photography / Shutterstock.com

Recent weeks have seen some upbeat news about the housing market. According to data released this week by CoreLogic, for example, home prices increased 3.8% in July compared with a year prior — the biggest year-over-year increase since August 2006.

But a lagging workforce is likely to hold back the recovery in home sales. Today’s jobs report indicates that growth remains sluggish: U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 96,000 in August, according to seasonally adjusted data released by the Labor Department. Economists expected a gain of 125,000. While the unemployment rate fell to 8.1%, down from 8.3% in July, that was largely because some people stopped looking for work.

Beth Ann Bovino, deputy chief economist at Standard & Poor’s, says roughly 200,000 jobs have to be added per month through 2013 in order for the housing market to fully bounce back. And the unemployment rate will need to drop to at least 7%, she says: “[Current] numbers won’t push the recovery into full gear — we’re nowhere near that.”

In normal times, strong job growth leads to a strong housing market. The correlation is straightforward: The employed have income to save for a down payment and to qualify for a mortgage. By buying homes, they boost sales and help raise home values. A virtuous cycle can also kick in: Stronger demand for homes can create more construction jobs, helping lower the unemployment rate while creating more potential home buyers.

In some cities, real estate has recently improved as the unemployment rate has declined. In the Phoenix metro area, the unemployment rate hit 7.5% in July, according to the latest (not seasonally adjusted) data, compared with 8.7% a year prior and 9.6% two years prior. Recent home sales activity has been on the upswing: The median sales price of existing single-family homes in this area reached $148,400 during the second quarter of 2012, up 14.2% from the previous quarter and up 29% from a year prior, according to the National Association of Realtors. A pickup in sales has also increased housing starts by 52% (that’s when ground is broken to begin new construction) from last year, according to Metrostudy, a housing market research and consulting firm.

Some housing markets are currently deviating from previous norms, strengthening despite a weak labor market, says Brad Hunter, chief economist at Metrostudy. That’s largely due to investors who’ve been snatching up distressed properties at rock bottom prices and buyers with enough cash to buy homes outright. All-cash sales, which are popular among investors, accounted for 27% of existing-home sales transactions in July, slightly down from a year prior but substantially higher than the historical average of roughly 10%, according to the NAR. Home buyers who’ve remained employed through the recession have also jumped in to take advantage of low home prices and mortgage rates, Hunter says.

While this demand has boosted sales, that momentum could fall short if new buyers don’t enter the market soon. “To sustain the uptrend, we’re going to need jobs,” says Hunter. And even when job numbers eventually improve, experts say there will be a lag time until the newly employed start buying homes. Hunter says it could be a year until they have enough of a work history to qualify for a mortgage, or longer if they also need to improve their credit.

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    • By WebOsPublisher

      ThreatExpert Submission Report
      body a color: #505050; text-decoration: none body a:hover color: #c00000; text-decoration: underline
      ThreatExpert Report
      Visit ThreatExpert web site
      |Close Report
      Submission Summary:
      Submission details:
      Submission received: 27 March 2012, 21:34:52
      Processing time: 11 min 8 sec
      Submitted sample:
      File MD5: 0x71EF4D9C4B1CB74D5573C1582C6E6847
      File SHA-1: 0x5775D946FBD886B20784F67567B33FD204B8A0DD
      Filesize: 1,812,188 bytes
      Summary of the findings:
      What’s been foundSeverity Level
      Creates a startup registry entry.
      Technical Details:
      File System Modifications
      The following files were created in the system:
      #Filename(s)File SizeFile HashAlias
      1
      %CommonPrograms%\System Scheduler\System Scheduler on the Web.lnk
      503 bytes
      MD5: 0x2DA54071A1860ED4DE3047F05173B9C8SHA-1: 0x5399E7081D3296A3136FFCB5B0F47E708D468F39
      (not available)
      2
      %CommonPrograms%\System Scheduler\System Scheduler.lnk
      682 bytes
      MD5: 0x0AB0BB71EA91015E2C4E596D5CB02F1CSHA-1: 0x63AF347EF2DD70ECA40B1E95CB79303A5C0A3372
      (not available)
      3
      %CommonPrograms%\System Scheduler\Uninstall System Scheduler.lnk
      677 bytes
      MD5: 0x67A3B0F005CF18F1BA662BD7128B9143SHA-1: 0x2121E35F3AE2C428125585E2EE8E3A78708D25F2
      (not available)
      4
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\clock.ico
      766 bytes
      MD5: 0x912D1673D00AF09594BA416A23FBCBEASHA-1: 0x1858AFA026D31E5BBDB0164D295ED769245A7C03
      (not available)
      5
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\ding.wav
      80,856 bytes
      MD5: 0x18E639792D3767436AC6955EB60E4F54SHA-1: 0xE0B512CF108118AF5169946C7FBEE493443B13BF
      (not available)
      6
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\Events\Scheduler.flg
      0 bytes
      MD5: 0xD41D8CD98F00B204E9800998ECF8427ESHA-1: 0xDA39A3EE5E6B4B0D3255BFEF95601890AFD80709
      (not available)
      7
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\Events\%UserName%.flg
      87 bytes
      MD5: 0xFB9DCB0DF4431457D5454FD156AB918ASHA-1: 0xB8AF64AB430E0626632B4DCEB4EE7D828923664F
      (not available)
      8
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\License.txt
      9,813 bytes
      MD5: 0x0EB0DE3985F9B2197CEC927CF79FC385SHA-1: 0x264CFC918A4985865143A6E1776D6443CD9C6B72
      (not available)
      9
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\LogFile.TXT
      197 bytes
      MD5: 0xB790654DC67B068B5315066E3ADC4DABSHA-1: 0x0942BD903443ABECD609E60005EDB0D0ABFD7997
      (not available)
      10
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\Message.exe
      127,488 bytes
      MD5: 0x3147687DB440F3C98B3A299C48AFE032SHA-1: 0x7F20D8826053F1ECDBE7E30FDA1EFEEF256F86E7
      packed with UPX [Kaspersky Lab]
      11
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\Preferences.ini
      1,069 bytes
      MD5: 0xF1AF7DC1280C6F017B518CCAA9E46134SHA-1: 0x2FED339246741ABE9ECE19C65E4FCB174E6C8A90
      (not available)
      12
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\ReadMe.txt
      7,684 bytes
      MD5: 0x6160278A3C3651B1E9F103A93D67838DSHA-1: 0x9BD61044325947D4DF556D9E16A96477514DA730
      (not available)
      13
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\RunNow.exe
      46,592 bytes
      MD5: 0x4C0A71705CC34D83485FC7AA5FECF65FSHA-1: 0xFE8F8DCDFDA5F47A98B08E592AE0F95BD75EF8CB
      packed with UPX [Kaspersky Lab]
      14
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\schedule.ico
      766 bytes
      MD5: 0xB2FCF86D697A86EE2A70959C8C90F4BFSHA-1: 0x493F9FD2958701AB53C4883CDD5AA9B4C2195696
      (not available)
      15
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\Scheduler.exe
      403,968 bytes
      MD5: 0xCCC63D977C105987EA6F608BAD317823SHA-1: 0x442CBC80651DB9ED51F26D313019109729B5A086
      (not available)
      16
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\scheduler.url
      53 bytes
      MD5: 0xB13BB004B11E5616431EADA48351ECC6SHA-1: 0x635F277DD4242662CE30BC82186200171A62D1DD
      (not available)
      17
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\ShowXY.exe
      175,616 bytes
      MD5: 0x52772B055325998D0E38F72695B0A253SHA-1: 0x34EA88D41F1E45916EA2A5225481CE21F052FB1E
      (not available)
      18
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\SSCmd.exe
      101,376 bytes
      MD5: 0xB01BA6DC7C46D6B3F9084CB3EAE69B90SHA-1: 0xF2E562373B4571D079D5D0DA723EA693A284D935
      (not available)
      19
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\SSVistaAdmin.exe
      138,240 bytes
      MD5: 0x2E2D565390BB5C07F96D7A0E56CDE0BASHA-1: 0xC10BEC2E9320483626E30483ACC4855D0BA860CC
      (not available)
      20
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\unins000.dat
      5,574 bytes
      MD5: 0xADA42BC6623FADFCEEA36FFB4F030E5CSHA-1: 0x8AB5485F982952863E6244C84116E742483BE772
      (not available)
      21
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\unins000.exe
      682,266 bytes
      MD5: 0xC0091978F09E9F943AE0D48D6DDF8F99SHA-1: 0xAA713220A1F489B79CFC84647F8F852FCAD0920C
      (not available)
      22
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\WSCHEDULER.CHM
      240,794 bytes
      MD5: 0x1011D3F685773F63FA4CAC6D0814B42CSHA-1: 0x0945E34E0BCBB86EF9DDD8F6BBA004730DF30704
      (not available)
      23
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\WScheduler.cnt
      1,947 bytes
      MD5: 0xAF97142B01C543018A377517B9B8896ESHA-1: 0x16BFFE82CAE2526F5321C4C2377A51FF49597650
      (not available)
      24
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\WScheduler.exe
      98,304 bytes
      MD5: 0xD75293BFEB2C85D2041EF7832CB5E1D9SHA-1: 0x95497AAD6AF9897CF2426CF8E94A9B170944A762
      (not available)
      25
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\WSCHEDULER.HLP
      197,284 bytes
      MD5: 0x2C54A0A586E94D0F5347417D62F9AFA5SHA-1: 0x0FD021DE1AE78466FF789F07197725DFEAE970FB
      (not available)
      26
      [file and pathname of the sample #1]
      1,812,188 bytes
      MD5: 0x71EF4D9C4B1CB74D5573C1582C6E6847SHA-1: 0x5775D946FBD886B20784F67567B33FD204B8A0DD
      (not available)
      Notes:
      %CommonPrograms% is a variable that refers to the file system directory that contains the directories for the common program groups that appear on the Start menu for all users. A typical path is C:\Documents and Settings\All Users\Start Menu\Programs (Windows NT/2000/XP).
      %ProgramFiles% is a variable that refers to the Program Files folder. A typical path is C:\Program Files.
      The following directories were created:
      %CommonPrograms%\System Scheduler
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler
      %ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\Events
      Registry Modifications
      The following Registry Key was created:
      HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Windows\CurrentVersion\Uninstall\Windows Scheduler_is1
      The newly created Registry Values are:
      [HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Windows\CurrentVersion\Run]
      WScheduler = “c:\PROGRA~1\SYSTEM~1\WScheduler.exe /LOGON”
      so that Scheduler.exe runs every time Windows starts
      [HKEY_LOCAL_MACHINE\SOFTWARE\Microsoft\Windows\CurrentVersion\Uninstall\Windows Scheduler_is1]
      Inno Setup: Setup Version = “5.1.9″
      Inno Setup: App Path = “%ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler”
      InstallLocation = “%ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\”
      Inno Setup: Icon Group = “System Scheduler”
      Inno Setup: User = “%UserName%”
      DisplayName = “System Scheduler 3.82″
      UninstallString = “”%ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\unins000.exe””
      QuietUninstallString = “”%ProgramFiles%\SystemScheduler\unins000.exe” /SILENT”
      Publisher = “Splinterware Software Solutions”
      URLInfoAbout = “splinterware.com”
      HelpLink = “splinterware.com”
      URLUpdateInfo = “splinterware.com”
      NoModify = 0×00000001
      NoRepair = 0×00000001
      InstallDate = “20120327″
      All content (“Information”) contained in this report is the copyrighted work of Threat Expert Ltd and its associated companies (“ThreatExpert”) and may not be copied without the express permission of ThreatExpert.
      The Information is provided on an “as is” basis. ThreatExpert disclaims all warranties, whether express or implied, to the maximum extent permitted by law, including the implied warranties that the Information is merchantable, of satisfactory quality, accurate, fit for a particular purpose or need, or non-infringing, unless such implied warranties are legally incapable of exclusion. Further, ThreatExpert does not warrant or make any representations regarding the use or the results of the use of the Information in terms of their correctness, accuracy, reliability, or otherwise.
      Copyright © 2012 ThreatExpert. All rights reserved.

      http://id.lenta.ru/profile/108850/

    • By WebOsPublisher

      The place to see the reach of your twitter accounts and hashtags!
      Welcome to Twitwheel!
      /* place css box model fixes for IE 5* in this conditional comment */
      .thrColFixHdr #sidebar1 width: 180px;
      .thrColFixHdr #sidebar2 width: 190px;
      /* place css fixes for all versions of IE in this conditional comment */
      .thrColFixHdr #sidebar2, .thrColFixHdr #sidebar1 padding-top: 30px;
      .thrColFixHdr #mainContent zoom: 1;
      /* the above proprietary zoom property gives IE the hasLayout it needs to avoid several bugs */
      body font-family:serif; font-size:11px; height:100%; overflow:auto; background-color:#; background-image: url(‘a0.twimg.com/images/themes/theme15/bg.png’); background-repeat:repeat; background-attachment:fixed;
      a.tweetLink, span.tweetLink font-weight:bold; color:##0084B4;
      span.tweetLink:hovercolor:#666666; text-decoration:underline;
      (function(d, s, id)
      var js, fjs = d.getElementsByTagName(s)[0];
      if (d.getElementById(id)) return;
      js = d.createElement(s); js.id = id;
      js.src = “//connect.facebook.net/en_US/all.js#xfbml=1&appId=101760166583900″;
      fjs.parentNode.insertBefore(js, fjs);
      (document, ‘script’, ‘facebook-jssdk’));
      [CLOSE X]
      What is Twitwheel?
      Twitwheel simplifies twitter so you can follow friends and hashtags easier. Login and enjoy!
      Twitwheel simplifica Twitter, haciendo mucho mГЎs fГЎcil el seguimiento de amigos y etiquetas. ВЎPreubalГі y disfruta!
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      ツイットウィール(Twitwheel)とは、ツイッター(Twitter)のハッシュタグとフレンドのフォローを分かりやすくするプログラムです。 ログインして使ってみてください!
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    • Just having a job does not qualify you for a home loan. Credit score needs to be at least the minimum, satisfactory credit history, debt ratios need to be below what the credit underwriter requires, loan to values have to meet the lenders criteria, job stability, type of employment, solid income verification, cash down payment and home appraisal that meets lenders internal approval. The new lending standards have gone back to what they used to be before the substandard real estate market bubble.

    • U3 is not an accurate estimate of unemployment. There are many people who have given up and do not get counted. Another way to look at unemployment is to count who is actually employed. Google for “Unemployment Kondratieff Wave” to see an employment chart.

    • Pacific Structured Assets—Offering fixed returns of anywhere between 4.50% to 8.00% on guaranteed & Life Contingent Secondary Market Annuities- email cwhitman@pacassets.com, or call (800) 449-6311, pacassets.com

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MarketWatch - Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News
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need to know
Apple's biggest challenge: Topping iPhone 6
Petco gets private equity interest amid IPO
Planet Fitness rises after earnings beat
Five Below shares tank in late trading
Oil stages turnaround to top $46 a barrel
The 11 richest people on the planet under 35
How estate planning can be stress-free
Get last-minute, cheap Broadway tickets
Babe Ruth’s New York apartment is for sale

Almond milk and other notable Fed nuggets

Where every Fed member stands on raising rates  
Fed Beige Book finds increasing wage pressures
Where every Fed member stands on rates
Rate-hike question is what Yellen didn’t want
Boston Fed president: Sept. doubt remains

Bill Gross calls a Fed rate hike ‘too little, too late’
FDIC chief: Rates may catch banks off-guard
Junk-bond stress level climbs to 5-year high

History’s lessons in surviving market crashes

They tangled with student debt all summer
College help for low-income families

Why gold now looks more risky than stocks
Why gold now looks more risky than stocks: Reeves
Still too many gold market bulls: Mark Hulbert

GoPro’s stock rocked by supplier’s outlook

Intel hopes its chip retool can revive PC sales

Private sector adds 190,000 jobs in August: ADP

U.S. productivity rises at fastest pace since end of 2013
Productivity rises at fastest pace since end of 2013

Donald Trump, Hillary Clinton playing game of liar’s poker with the voters
Trump, Clinton play game of liar’s poker: Delamaide
Bush mounts ‘germophobe’ attack on Trump

Salesforce’s new target: rationalizing medical info

Medicare premiums will be going up for many

Workers don’t do better in unions
Opinion: Workers don’t do better in unions
Raising wages to $15 would raise prices by 4%
L.A.: $15 wage will lift 600,000 out of poverty

Growing doubts among Viacom investors lead to 50% stock drop
Growing doubts among Viacom investors

China stock market to close for World War II anniversary
China tightens controls to fight capital outflows

Guide to managing money from your 20s to your 70s
Guide to managing money from your 20s to your 70s
Take your company pension, or buy an annuity?
Don’t overcomplicate 401(k) transfer to an IRA
Is this all the investing advice you’ll ever need?

Uber drivers lawsuit  endangers much more than Uber
Uber will likely appeal class-action decision
Uber driver suit can proceed as class action

These are the cars that get the most Instagram attention
Best time to buy a new car may be just ahead

10 cities in U.S. with the very worst traffic problems
Lowest Labor Day gas prices in 11 years: AAA
/conga/frontpage.html 354005

Markets »

133.48MDow Volume:
Avg Vol: 113.01M
Unchanged
201
Decliners
1922
Advancers
4480
Price Chg %Chg 1 Day
Range: 1 Day
  • 1 Day
  • 5 Days
  • 1 Month
  • 3 Months
  • 6 Months
  • 1 Year
  • 2 Years
Dow
/quotes/zigman/627449/realtime 16,351 +293 1.82%
Nasdaq
/quotes/zigman/12633936/realtime 4,750 +114 2.46%
S&P 500
/quotes/zigman/3870025/realtime 1,949 +35 1.83%
GlobalDow
/quotes/zigman/629063/realtime 2,316 +3 0.14%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/662444/delayed 1,132 -2 0.13%
Oil
/quotes/zigman/2331095/delayed 46.25 0.00 0.00%
FTSE 100
/quotes/zigman/3173262/delayed 6,083 +25 0.41%
DAX
/quotes/zigman/2380246/delayed 10,048 +32 0.32%
CAC 40
/quotes/zigman/3173214/delayed 4,555 +14 0.30%
FTSE MIB
/quotes/zigman/1482176/delayed 21,612 +161 0.75%
IBEX 35
/quotes/zigman/2759620/delayed 9,938 -55 0.55%
Stoxx 600
/quotes/zigman/2380150/delayed 354 +1 0.27%
Asia Dow
/quotes/zigman/6959860/realtime 2,719 +16 0.58%
Nikkei 225
/quotes/zigman/5986735/delayed 18,353 +258 1.42%
Hang Seng
/quotes/zigman/2622475/delayed 20,935 -250 1.18%
Shanghai
/quotes/zigman/1859015/delayed 3,160 -6 0.20%
Sensex
/quotes/zigman/1652085/delayed 25,454 -243 0.95%
Singapore
/quotes/zigman/1709939/delayed 2,903 +25 0.85%
Euro
/quotes/zigman/16008136/realtime/sampled 1.12 0.00 0.07%
Yen
/quotes/zigman/16008150/realtime/sampled 120.65 +0.32 0.27%
Pound
/quotes/zigman/16008140/realtime/sampled 1.53 0.00 0.00%
Australia$
/quotes/zigman/16008115/realtime/sampled 0.70 0.00 0.24%
DXY Index
/quotes/zigman/1652083/delayed 96.01 +0.03 0.03%
WSJ $ Idx
/quotes/zigman/41508961/realtime 88.65 +0.09 0.10%
U.S. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866666/realtime 2.18 -0.01 0.44%
German 10y
/quotes/zigman/15866409/realtime 0.78 -0.02 1.96%
Italy 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866497/realtime 2.00 0.00 0.02%
Spain 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866444/realtime 2.15 +0.01 0.45%
U.K. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866328/realtime 1.82 -0.01 0.55%
Japan 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866525/realtime 0.40 +0.01 2.22%
Crude Oil
/quotes/zigman/2331095/delayed 46 0 0.00%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/662444/delayed 1,132 -2 0.13%
Corn
/quotes/zigman/7599553/delayed 366 -1 0.34%
DJIA F
/quotes/zigman/38649152/delayed 16,349 +19 0.12%
S&P F
/quotes/zigman/30356461/delayed 1,949 +2 0.11%
Silver
/quotes/zigman/3134148/delayed 15 0 0.05%

Quotes

Symbol Price Change % Change
FB /quotes/zigman/9962609/composite 89.89 2.66 3.05%
AAPL /quotes/zigman/68270/composite 112.34 4.62 4.29%
GOOG /quotes/zigman/30194416/composite 614.34 16.55 2.77%
BAC /quotes/zigman/190927/composite 15.85 0.32 2.06%
C /quotes/zigman/5065548/composite 51.75 0.81 1.59%
F /quotes/zigman/264304/composite 13.87 0.15 1.09%
T /quotes/zigman/398198/composite 32.82 0.50 1.55%
BP /quotes/zigman/247026/composite 32.20 0.06 0.19%
GE /quotes/zigman/227468/composite 24.57 0.69 2.89%
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Rates »

5 yr CD
1.5%
2 yr CD
0.8%
1 yr CD
0.6%
MMA $10K+
0.3%
MMA $50K+
0.4%

National averages from Bankrate.com

You Don’t Need Another Credit Card, You Need A Better One.
Avg. APR Last Week 6 Months
Low Interest 11.62% 11.62% 11.53%
Business 12.85% 12.85% 12.85%
Student 13.14% 13.14% 13.14%
Balance Transfer 14.12% 14.12% 14.00%
Airline 15.10% 15.10% 15.15%
Reward 15.14% 15.14% 14.99%
Cash Back 15.27% 15.27% 15.26%
Instant Approval 18.00% 18.00% 17.93%
Bad Credit 22.73% 22.73% 22.48%
Source:CreditCards.com

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