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It’s Peak Travel Season — for Investors

Travel stocks have taken flight. The median U.S. stock rose just 1% this year, but TripAdvisor (TRIP) is up 72%; Expedia (EXPE), 63%; and Priceline (PCLN), 38%.

Bruce Rolff / Shutterstock.com

TripAdvisor, which was spun off from Expedia in December, specializes in user reviews of hotels and makes most of its money from click-based advertising. Expedia and Priceline book flights, hotel stays and car reservations in exchange for a cut that’s negotiated with the supplier.

It’s not just dotcoms that are rising. Hoteliers Marriott International (MAR) and Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) are up 27% and 33%, respectively. Even Delta (DAL) and United Continental Holdings (UAL) are up 27% and 21%.

The travel industry is economically sensitive, and gross domestic product growth in the U.S. has been slowing. Why, then, are the stocks doing so well?

The travel websites make more money from hotels than from air travel, and the hotel industry is recovering. PwC, an accounting and consulting firm, reports that business travel is picking up, particularly in the finance and technology industries, and that consumers who have put off spending on cars and appliances have resumed traveling for leisure.

Average daily room nights have now surpassed their 2007 peak. Supply growth is minimal: 0.6% per year, after subtracting for removals of closed hotels. PwC expects the U.S. occupancy rate, a key driver of profits, to rise to 61.3% this year, from 60% last year. Hoteliers, meanwhile, continue building overseas in fast-growing markets like China.

Airlines don’t have it quite as good. Airlines for America, a trade group, forecasts flat spending on U.S. flights this year. Earlier this month, the International Air Transport Association reaffirmed its forecast for global airline profits of $3 billion this year — down from nearly $8 billion last year and $16 billion in 2010.

But much of the profit squeeze is owed to higher fuel costs, and the price for Brent crude oil has fallen about 13% this year. Given that profit margins for airlines are thin, any drop in fuel costs could make a big difference. And mergers, like a 2009 one between Delta and Northwest and a 2010 one between Continental and United, are gradually yielding lower costs and stronger pricing.

Investors should think twice before buying into the travel stock rally, however. The aforementioned airlines trade at only around five times this year’s earnings estimates–a seeming bargain compared with the S&P 500 index, which trades at 13 times earnings estimates. But the discounts reflect the fact that both companies carry heavy debt and have a history of volatile profits.

The rest of the group sells for plenty more. TripAdvisor is at 29 times earnings; Expedia 17 times; and Priceline 20 times. Expedia shares lost 2.7% Wednesday after Jake Fuller of Lazard Capital Markets cut his recommendation to hold from buy, citing an “aggressive” valuation and “decelerating U.S. bookings growth”. Marriott sells for 22 times earnings and Wyndham, 16 times.

Each of these companies is generating healthy profit growth and a continued rise in hotel demand could send their shares higher. But with the broad market looking inexpensive and the economy, wobbly, there seems little reason to pay top dollar for a bet on travel.

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MarketWatch - Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News
Bulletin
Investor Alert
need to know
By this measure, worst is over for U.S. stocks
Staples, Office Depot to delay close of merger
PBF Energy chemical leak in Del. refinery
Drug maker Cortendo files for IPO
‘War Room’ could be box-office surprise
Oil scores biggest weekly gain since 2009
Ashley Madison CEO steps down
Amgen gets FDA OK for cholesterol treatment
Atlantic hurricanes lose sway over oil and gas
5 silly new words in the Oxford dictionary

Apple Watch debut stronger than previously thought: IDC
Apple to host Sept. 9 product event
Apple closes in on Fitbit in wearables

Craft beer acquisition by Duvel — stay small, stay beautiful
Firestone is latest U.S. brewer to join the Duvel family
10 fall beers with absolutely no pumpkin in them

Instead of flavored vodka, flavored sake?

Never use a market order when stocks are selling off
Schwab site hit by outages in busy trade stretch
Lack of fear means this correction isn’t finished

Most imposing stock ‘wall of worry’ in 5 years
Worried? With good advice, you won't be

John Bogle sees promise in market pullbacks
A strategy to make money in this crazy market
Record $29.5 billion yanked from stock funds

Roubini: Better early warning system is needed

Why you should worry and be happy that stocks aren’t a sure bet
Both worry, be happy that stocks aren’t a sure bet
This wild market is no threat to your income and spending

A sign for Moody's rating agency is displayed at the company headquarters in New York, September 18, 2012.  AFP PHOTO/Emmanuel Dunand        (Photo credit should read EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/GettyImages)
ADP debt-funded buyback raises Moody’s ire

Democratic leaders frustrated by Clinton’s handling of email issue
More frustration with Clinton on email issue
Poll shows Biden running stronger than Clinton
Trump: I’m OK with raising taxes on myself

Poland looks next to turn against the EU

China wins the Battle of Mountain Pass
China just undermined the U.S. Defense Department

China may be in worse shape than most of us think
What should China do to fix its economy?
Analysts dismiss fears of a China hard landing
‘Loch Ness monster’ and China's mystery rally

These are the best jobs for millennials
These are the best jobs for millennials


How momentum investing could go out of style
Momentum investing could be going out of style

Tesla Model S scores 103 on 100-point scale
Tesla Model S scores 103 on 100-point scale
Elon Musk retweets slow-driving Tesla owner
Colbert should ask Elon Musk, Kalanick this
$400,000 supercar goes up in flames

How to cope when you’re suddenly uninsured

/conga/frontpage.html 353617

Markets »

131.79MDow Volume:
Avg Vol: 112.32M
Unchanged
186
Decliners
2190
Advancers
4209
Price Chg %Chg 1 Day
Range: 1 Day
  • 1 Day
  • 5 Days
  • 1 Month
  • 3 Months
  • 6 Months
  • 1 Year
  • 2 Years
Dow
/quotes/zigman/627449/realtime 16,643 -12 0.07%
Nasdaq
/quotes/zigman/12633936/realtime 4,828 +16 0.32%
S&P 500
/quotes/zigman/3870025/realtime 1,989 +1 0.06%
GlobalDow
/quotes/zigman/629063/realtime 2,373 +13 0.54%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/662444/delayed 1,133 +11 0.95%
Oil
/quotes/zigman/2331095/delayed 45.33 +2.77 6.51%
FTSE 100
/quotes/zigman/3173262/delayed 6,248 +56 0.90%
DAX
/quotes/zigman/2380246/delayed 10,299 -17 0.17%
CAC 40
/quotes/zigman/3173214/delayed 4,675 +17 0.36%
FTSE MIB
/quotes/zigman/1482176/delayed 21,994 -208 0.93%
IBEX 35
/quotes/zigman/2759620/delayed 10,353 +63 0.61%
Stoxx 600
/quotes/zigman/2380150/delayed 363 +1 0.28%
Asia Dow
/quotes/zigman/6959860/realtime 2,798 +45 1.64%
Nikkei 225
/quotes/zigman/5986735/delayed 19,136 +562 3.03%
Hang Seng
/quotes/zigman/2622475/delayed 21,612 -226 1.04%
Shanghai
/quotes/zigman/1859015/delayed 3,232 +149 4.82%
Sensex
/quotes/zigman/1652085/delayed 26,392 +161 0.61%
Singapore
/quotes/zigman/1709939/delayed 2,956 +11 0.36%
Euro
/quotes/zigman/16008136/realtime/sampled 1.12 -0.01 0.54%
Yen
/quotes/zigman/16008150/realtime/sampled 121.70 +0.67 0.55%
Pound
/quotes/zigman/16008140/realtime/sampled 1.54 0.00 0.07%
Australia$
/quotes/zigman/16008115/realtime/sampled 0.72 +0.00 0.03%
DXY Index
/quotes/zigman/1652083/delayed 96.15 +0.38 0.40%
WSJ $ Idx
/quotes/zigman/41508961/realtime 88.50 +0.24 0.27%
U.S. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866666/realtime 2.18 0.00 0.12%
German 10y
/quotes/zigman/15866409/realtime 0.75 +0.00 0.17%
Italy 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866497/realtime 1.91 -0.02 0.80%
Spain 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866444/realtime 2.06 +0.01 0.26%
U.K. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866328/realtime 1.85 -0.02 0.96%
Japan 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866525/realtime 0.38 -0.01 2.48%
Crude Oil
/quotes/zigman/2331095/delayed 45 +3 6.51%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/662444/delayed 1,133 +11 0.95%
Corn
/quotes/zigman/7599553/delayed 374 -1 0.20%
DJIA F
/quotes/zigman/38649152/delayed 16,632 -18 0.11%
S&P F
/quotes/zigman/30356461/delayed 1,986 -3 0.15%
Silver
/quotes/zigman/3134148/delayed 15 +0 0.89%

Quotes

Symbol Price Change % Change
FB /quotes/zigman/9962609/composite 91.01 1.28 1.43%
AAPL /quotes/zigman/68270/composite 113.29 0.37 0.33%
GOOG /quotes/zigman/30194416/composite 630.38 -7.23 -1.13%
BAC /quotes/zigman/190927/composite 16.36 -0.08 -0.49%
C /quotes/zigman/5065548/composite 53.28 -0.16 -0.30%
F /quotes/zigman/264304/composite 13.74 0.18 1.33%
T /quotes/zigman/398198/composite 33.29 -0.15 -0.45%
BP /quotes/zigman/247026/composite 33.26 0.23 0.70%
GE /quotes/zigman/227468/composite 25.16 0.15 0.60%
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Rates »

5 yr CD
1.5%
2 yr CD
0.8%
1 yr CD
0.6%
MMA $10K+
0.3%
MMA $50K+
0.4%

National averages from Bankrate.com

You Don’t Need Another Credit Card, You Need A Better One.
Avg. APR Last Week 6 Months
Low Interest 11.62% 11.62% 11.53%
Business 12.85% 12.85% 12.85%
Student 13.14% 13.14% 13.14%
Balance Transfer 14.12% 14.12% 14.00%
Airline 15.10% 15.10% 15.15%
Reward 15.14% 15.14% 14.99%
Cash Back 15.27% 15.27% 15.26%
Instant Approval 18.00% 18.00% 17.93%
Bad Credit 22.73% 22.73% 22.48%
Source:CreditCards.com

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