By Jack Hough
Facebook’s forthcoming stock offering and United States Treasury notes would seem to occupy opposite ends of the risk-reward spectrum of investments. But the two share similarities.
The 10-year Treasury recently yielded 1.7%, not far from its historic low yield of 1.67% reached in September. Bond yields move opposite prices, so as buyers become more eager, yields fall. Since 1962, 10-year Treasurys carried an average yield of 6.7%.
Facebook set its IPO price at $38 Thursday, suggesting starting market value of $104 billion (shares could easily open higher).The company earned $1 billion last year, a 65% increase from 2010. Assume another 65% increase this year (a bullish assumption, considering that first-quarter earnings declined from a year earlier) and the social networking giant will earn $1.65 billion.
Divide the earnings by the market value and the result is an “earnings yield” of 1.59%–a smidgen below that 10-year Treasury yield. The earnings yield for the S&P 500 index of large U.S companies is close to 8%.
The first similarity between Facebook and Treasurys, in other words, is that they both generate only a trickle of reward for the price.
The ultra-low payoff for T-notes is owed to two main factors. First, the Federal Reserve has kept its core Fed funds rate near zero since December 2008 (and expects to keep it “extraordinarily low” through 2014). Its goal is to spur the economy, and with it, job growth.
Second, investors, spooked by deep fiscal problems in the Euro zone (and a recent anti-austerity movement there) are scrambling for safe havens. The U.S. has fiscal challenges of its own, but Treasurys remain the top choice for stowing large sums of money away from trouble.
The tiny earnings yield for Facebook is owed to a variety of factors, too. The company has widespread recognition among even casual investors, and its initial stock sale is small enough to create a large surplus of demand, pushing prices higher.
But the offering also illustrates that investors are as desperate for growth as they are for safety. Ignore giant earnings increases for prosperous Apple (AAPL) and bailed-out insurer AIG (AIG), and S&P 500 companies produced only about 1% earnings growth during the first quarter.
Neither Facebook shares nor 10-year Treasurys are sure losers, but they are likely ones. Facebook’s stock price could easily soar in the months to come; that’s a function of investor behavior. But in a year or two, absent Apple-like growth, investors are likely to turn their focus to the disparity between the company’s income and stock price.
Treasury investors will get their money back in 10 years and interest along the way, and it’s even possible that yields could move lower and prices higher. (Look at Japan’s 10-year government bond yield of 0.83%.) But the most likely outcome is that the interest fails to keep up with the rising cost of living.
This is plain to see in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, or TIPS–a version of Treasurys designed to keep up with the cost of goods and services. Ten-year ones yield -0.35%. In other words, investors who buy them sign up to lose money slowly to inflation. Buyers of regular 10-year Treasurys are signing up for a similar deal stated less explicitly.
Therein lays the second similarity between Facebook and Treasurys. Facebook is an obviously risky investment, but Treasurys, despite their reputation for safety, are risky, too, if they’re all but guaranteed to reduce wealth in years to come.
The broad stock and bond markets still hold opportunity for careful shoppers, but those chasing either extreme of the risk-reward spectrum are unlikely to get their money’s worth.
By WebOsPublisher
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Re: [porting-dev] (Binary) icons committed without -kb flag, CWS macosx11
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Re: [porting-dev] (Binary) icons committed without -kb flag, CWS macosx11
eric.bachard
Fri, 07 Oct 2005 10:00:14 -0700
Hi,
Jens-Heiner Rechtien a Г©crit :
I found a number of icons which have been committed to CWS macosx11
without the ‘-kb’ (binary) CVS flag.
Yes, sorry, my mistake :-/
Hard to tell if they are broken
now, it’s certainly possible (due to keyword expansion). Can anyone
check these icons?
We already checked these icons and found no problem.
To be sure, I just have checked 5 min ago
macosx11 cws (desktop only ) : ok for me
OOO680_m2 (desktop only) : icons corrupted ?
Why are m2 corrupted and not macosx11 ?
They found the way into OOO680 m2 and will go into
SRC680 m133.
I’ll be very happy if this is possible, waiting what can I do to repair ?
If the icons are broken please file an issue, otherwise
just add the ‘-kb’ flag. Eric?
Be sure I wont forget next time. Sorry, and thank you for the warning.
Regards,
eric bachard
–
<[EMAIL PROTECTED]>
Francophone OpenOffice.org Commmunity developer (Linux PPC / Mac OS X /
X11)
See : <fr.openoffice.org>
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[porting-dev] (Binary) icons committed without -kb fl… Jens-Heiner Rechtien
Re: [porting-dev] (Binary) icons committed witho… eric.bachard
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Search the Web Site:
‘
Search On : All Words Any Words Phrase
with HTML encoded < and >
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End If
‘Slit each word to be searched up and place in an array
sarySearchWord = Split(Trim(strSearchWords), ” “)
‘Read the file number to show from
intFileNum = CInt(Request.QueryString(“FileNumPosition”))
‘Set the number of files shown so far to the file number read in above
intNumFilesShown = intFileNum
‘Create the file system object
Set fsoObject = Server.CreateObject(“Scripting.FileSystemObject”)
‘If there is no words entered by the user to search for then dont carryout the file search routine
If NOT strSearchWords = “” Then
‘Get the path and the root folder to be searched
Set fldObject = fsoObject.GetFolder(Server.MapPath(“./”))
‘Read in the server path to this ASP script
strServerPath = fldObject.Path & “\”
‘Set to true as this is searching the root directory
blnIsRoot = True
‘Call the search sub prcedure
Call SearchFile(fldObject)
‘Reset server variables
Set fsoObject = Nothing
Set fldObject = Nothing
‘Call the Bubble Sort procedure to sort the results into highest matches first
Call SortResultsByNumMatches(sarySearchResults, intTotalFilesFound)
‘Display the HTML table with the results status of the search or what type of search it is
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
‘Display that there where no matching records found
If blnSearchResultsFound = False Then
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” Searched the site for ” & strSearchWords & “. Sorry, no results found.”
‘Else Search went OK so display how many records found
Else
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” Searched the site for ” & strSearchWords & “. Displaying Results ” & intFileNum + 1 & ” – ” & intNumFilesShown & ” of ” & intTotalFilesFound & “.”
End If
‘Close the HTML table with the search status
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
‘HTML table to display the search results or an error if there are no results
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
‘If no results are found then display an error message
If blnSearchResultsFound = False Then
‘Write HTML displaying the error
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” Your Search – ” & strSearchWords & ” – did not match any files on this site.”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” Suggestions:”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” Make sure all words are spelled correctly.Try different keywords.Try more general keywords.Try fewer keywords.”
‘Else display the results
Else
‘Loop round to display each result within the search results array
For intDisplayResultsLoopCounter = (intFileNum + 1) to intNumFilesShown
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ” & sarySearchResults(intDisplayResultsLoopCounter,1)
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Next
End If
‘Close the HTML table displaying the results
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
End If
‘Display an HTML table with links to the other search results
If intTotalFilesFound ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” Results Page: ”
‘If the page number is higher than page 1 then display a back link
If intNumFilesShown << Prev ”
End If
‘If there are more pages to display then display links to all the search results pages
If intTotalFilesFound ” & intPageLinkLoopCounter & ” ”
End If
Next
End If
‘If it is Not the last of the search results than display a next link
If intTotalFilesFound Next >>”
End If
‘Finsh HTML the table
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
Response.Write vbCrLf & ” ”
End If
%
Searched documents in total.
webwizguide.info”)
‘***** END WARNING – REMOVAL OR MODIFICATION OF THIS CODE WILL VIOLATE THE LICENSE AGREEMENT ******
%
0 Then
Response.Write(“Error The Server does not support the Regular Expessions objectPlease download the alternative version of this application from webwizguide.info/asp/sample_scripts/site_search_script.asp”)
‘Reset error object
Err.Number = 0
End If
‘Loop to search each file in the folder
For Each filObject in fldObject.Files
‘Check the file extension to make sure the file is of the extension type to be searched
If InStr(1, strFilesTypesToSearch, fsoObject.GetExtensionName(filObject.Name), vbTextCompare) “, “”, strFileContents)
‘Read in the description meta tag of the file
strPageDescription = GetFileMetaTag(“”, strFileContents)
‘Read in the keywords of the file
strPageKeywords = GetFileMetaTag(“”, strFileContents)
‘Set the pattern using regular expressions to srip any HTML tags
objRegExp.Pattern = “]* intNumFilesShown Then
‘Calculate the number of results shown
intNumFilesShown = intNumFilesShown + 1
End If
‘Place the search results into the saerch results array
‘Calculate the array position of the results array
intResultsArrayPosition = intResultsArrayPosition + 1
‘Set the search results found boolean to true
blnSearchResultsFound = True
‘If the file is in the root directory then
If blnIsRoot = True Then
‘Place the search results into the search results array
sarySearchResults(intResultsArrayPosition,1) = “” & strPageTitle & “”
‘Else it is not in the root directiory
Else
‘Place the search results into the search results array
sarySearchResults(intResultsArrayPosition,1) = “” & strPageTitle & “”
End If
‘Place the rest of the search results in the search results array
sarySearchResults(intResultsArrayPosition,1) = sarySearchResults(intResultsArrayPosition,1) & vbCrLf & ” ” & strPageDescription
sarySearchResults(intResultsArrayPosition,1) = sarySearchResults(intResultsArrayPosition,1) & vbCrLf & ” Search Matches ” & intNumMatches & ” – Last Updated ” & FormatDateTime(filObject.DateLastModified, VbLongDate) & ” – Size ” & CInt(filObject.Size / 1024) & “kb”
‘Read in the number of search word matches into the second part of the two dimensional array
sarySearchResults(intResultsArrayPosition,2) = intNumMatches
End If
‘Close the text stream object
tsObject.Close
End If
End If
Next
‘Reset the Regular Expression object
Set objRegExp = Nothing
‘Loop to search through the sub folders within the site
For Each subFldObject In FldObject.SubFolders
‘Check to make sure the folder about to be searched is not a barred folder if it is then don’t search
If NOT InStr(1, strBarredFolders, subFldObject.Name, vbTextCompare)
I’m afraid your anayslis is incorrect and may lead to erroneous decisions as to redeployment of your capital. Your yield calculation must be based on the current value of your holding, not the original investment. On a periodic basis, you must look at the returns available in the market and decide whether to liquidate your current holding and reinvest.Assume you invested $100 in a stock with annual dividends on your purchased shares of $5, then you have a divident yield of 5%. If that stock’s price goes to $200 and management do not increase the annual dividend amount, your yield is not 5% – it is 2.5%. Equally, if management DID increase the annual dividend amount so that your shares received not $5 but $10, then your dividend yield would remain at the original 5%. In this second case, you cannot say that your dividend yield has increased from 5% to 10% because you are tying up capital of $200, not your original $100, to achieve the $10 of dividend. Your anayslis would ignore the opportunity cost of the increase in the value of your holding.
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