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Another Bounce for Yo-Yo Market

Investors ended the week with a nice boost to their stock portfolios today, but many financial advisers are telling clients to tune out today’s move and think longer term.

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Buoyed by a strong consumer sentiment report and easing worries over the European debt crisis, the Dow jumped more than 250 points on Friday. The move up follows three consecutive days of three-digit swings for the stock market, and financial advisers say they’re expecting more of the same heading into next week. Even as many pros have abandoned their buy and hold strategies to regularly tweak client portfolios during the past few months of volatility, others say this recent bout of swings makes it extremely difficult to time – and perhaps not worth it.  Even with today’s jump so far, they point out, the market is flat for the week.

Indeed, advisers say the high level of anxiety in the market is likely to keep the turbulence high in coming weeks. For starters, they point out that the VIX, the index used to measure volatility, has been consistently elevated for months. Another measure called “excess volatility,” is also up, which suggests that stocks are backtracking a lot more than they typically do, like a boat that’s tacking back and forth across the wind instead of sailing straight ahead.

Still, all that panic has not reached the level last seen in 2008, and some pros say it backs up their strategy of doing little — at least for now. No day this year has made it to the list of the top 25 biggest one-day moves on a percentage basis, showing that markets are agitated, but not crashing. “We’ve had a lot of movement and a lot of activity, but in terms of the overall market move we haven’t really gone anywhere in the last couple of months,” says Ryan Detrick, a senior technical strategist for Schaeffer’s Investment Research.

While some pros say they’re not making any big moves to cash, as many did when the volatility first picked up in August, they are still making some minor moves with client portfolios. For his clients, Paul Nolte, the managing director of advisory firm Dearborn Partners, says he tries to take advantage of down market days by making a wish list of stocks and snapping them up at discounted prices.


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    • Will work for volume. The SP500 Index is at 1263.85 established on 2.57 B volume. While that’s not great since volume can help understand the conviction behind a movement up or down, the price action on the SP500 Index leads movements up or down. So long as the price action remains above each moving average, be it the 10, 20, 100, or 50 Day Simple Moving Averages, the charts continue to improve, which furthers the sandwich’s ability to eat itself. The 100 day simple moving average continues downwards with a slightly negative slope while the 10 day simple moving average looks to cross below the 20 day simple moving average after its slope was changed following the rout earlier in the week. Continued gains will quickly change the slope of the 10 Day Simple Moving Average from negative to positive while a drop of the 10 Day Simple Moving Average below the 20 Day Simple Moving Average will cause a steeper sell-off and a more cautious advance of the 20 and 50 Day Simple Moving Averages towards the 200 day simple moving average. As we speak, the SP500 Index is caught between the 200 Day Simple Moving Average and has found support on the 100 Day Simple Moving Average. This type of ugly trading will continue until the 50 Day Simple Moving Average crosses above the 100 Day Simple Moving Average, reaffirming the upward momentum behind this market. With earnings stronger than expected and outlooks being revised upwards, it is becoming harder and harder to price many of the bellwethers lower than they already are.

      Upside resistance is clearly the 200 Day Simple Moving Average. Once that is broken, resistance will be at the high from November 08, 2011, of 1277.55 on 2.93B volume and the October 27, 2011, high of 1292.66 on 4.91B volume. As for support, it will be found at the June 16, 2011, low of 1258.07 on 3.09 B volume. Should that support break, the next support will be at 1249.5 to 1243.91 where the 10 Day Simple Moving Average and 20 Day Simple Moving Average are starting to become friends. The tried and true support as of recent is the 100 Day Simple Moving Average, which is at 1227.66. It’s a crazy market for sure, but we’re making it crazy. This is what a stable recovery without an asset bubble looks like, we’ll be wishing for asset bubbles again soon enough.

    • Well, its only right that one should go very careful with investing and managing their money…

      Any wrong move nowadays is fatal as many are failing to get returns because of the ongoing crisis!

      Hope for the best! Plan Ahead!

    • The gyrations the last year have given me a headache – I am literally loosing sleep because of the bouncing market. I’ve been looking for more stable investments, and came across an interesting piece related to Jeremy Granthan where he recommends farmland and forestry as stable investments destined to outperform: This definitely got me thinking, as I am at the end of my rope with all of the stock indices!

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