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need to know
FTSE 100 hits lowest level since 2012
Sweden cuts key rate further below zero
SocGen profit up on Amundi stake sale
Shell cancels $14.4 billion bridge credit facility
Crude price pushes below $27 a barrel

Hong Kong stocks dive as selloff kicks in
U.S. government runs $55 billion budget surplus

Twitter proves Wall Street critics were right
Twitter adds new timeline feature

North Korea reportedly executes top general

India to pick up China’s slack in oil demand

BP CEO calls for cuts to carbon emissions
If you’re bullish on oil, these stocks are buys

Bass issues warning on China’s foreign cash reserves
What’s holding back the world economy?
China's FX reserves drop $99.47 bln


Yellen: Fed isn’t sure negative rates are legal
Yellen doesn’t expect to reverse Fed rate hike
Yellen gets into heated exchange at hearing
Bond market, Yellen face off on negative rates

Burger King to start selling hot dogs

Wendy's profit, revenue top estimates
McDonald’s breakfast boost may not last


Will falling oil prices bankrupt Saudis, Russians?
Cheap oil may make OPEC dominant again
As oil revenue drops, Gulf states ponder taxes
Will oil get so cheap, it won’t pay to extract it?

Christie, Fiorina drop out of presidential race

A break for zombie-fighting Amazon developers

Expedia doesn’t see Airbnb as a threat

What Apple, Amazon and Starbucks have in common
Amazon up after new share buyback plan

Portland Trail Blazers guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum live with ... mom
Meet the NBA stars who live with their mothers

REIT bonus targets at heart of Brixmor scandal

Private-equity firms now buying back their own shares

Has college financial aid totally backfired?

Michael Moore: Imagine life without student debt
6 ways Obama would make college affordable

Why is everyone freaking out about ‘CoCos’?

Social Security in the crosshairs: replacement rates again
Stage is being set for cuts to Social Security

Is it wise to hold on to cash reserves?

/conga/frontpage.html 367670

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122.29MDow Volume:
Avg Vol: 131.80M
Unchanged
201
Decliners
3048
Advancers
3255
Price Chg %Chg 1 Day
Range: 1 Day
  • 1 Day
  • 5 Days
  • 1 Month
  • 3 Months
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  • 1 Year
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Dow
/quotes/zigman/627449/realtime 15,915 -100 0.62%
Nasdaq
/quotes/zigman/12633936/realtime 4,284 +15 0.35%
S&P 500
/quotes/zigman/3870025/realtime 1,852 0 0.02%
GlobalDow
/quotes/zigman/629063/realtime 2,064 -16 0.78%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/33772884/delayed 1,226 +31 2.59%
Oil
/quotes/zigman/2260836/delayed 26.70 -0.75 2.73%
FTSE 100
/quotes/zigman/3173262/delayed 5,534 -138 2.43%
DAX
/quotes/zigman/2380246/delayed 8,784 -233 2.59%
CAC 40
/quotes/zigman/3173214/delayed 3,915 -146 3.59%
FTSE MIB
/quotes/zigman/1482176/delayed 15,931 -784 4.69%
IBEX 35
/quotes/zigman/2759620/delayed 7,843 -300 3.69%
Stoxx 600
/quotes/zigman/2380150/delayed 305 -10 3.23%
Asia Dow
/quotes/zigman/6959860/realtime 2,439 -14 0.59%
Nikkei 225
/quotes/zigman/5986735/delayed 15,713 -372 2.31%
Hang Seng
/quotes/zigman/2622475/delayed 18,546 -742 3.85%
Shanghai
/quotes/zigman/1859015/delayed 2,763 -18 0.63%
Sensex
/quotes/zigman/1652085/delayed 22,952 -807 3.40%
Singapore
/quotes/zigman/1709939/delayed 2,538 -44 1.70%
Euro
/quotes/zigman/16008136/realtime/sampled 1.13 +0.00 0.23%
Yen
/quotes/zigman/16008150/realtime/sampled 111.64 -1.71 1.51%
Pound
/quotes/zigman/16008140/realtime/sampled 1.45 -0.01 0.48%
Australia$
/quotes/zigman/16008115/realtime/sampled 0.70 0.00 0.66%
DXY Index
/quotes/zigman/1652083/delayed 95.55 -0.28 0.29%
WSJ $ Idx
/quotes/zigman/41508961/realtime 88.73 -0.16 0.17%
U.S. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866666/realtime 1.63 -0.04 2.53%
German 10y
/quotes/zigman/15866409/realtime 0.18 -0.06 25.52%
Italy 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866497/realtime 1.71 +0.07 4.14%
Spain 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866444/realtime 1.78 +0.06 3.59%
U.K. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866328/realtime 1.33 -0.08 5.82%
Japan 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866525/realtime 0.01 0.00 0.00%
Crude Oil
/quotes/zigman/2260836/delayed 27 -1 2.73%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/33772884/delayed 1,226 +31 2.59%
Corn
/quotes/zigman/25518691/delayed 361 +0 0.07%
DJIA F
/quotes/zigman/48241424/delayed 15,581 -285 1.80%
S&P F
/quotes/zigman/43106711/delayed 1,813 -34 1.85%
Silver
/quotes/zigman/32655632/delayed 16 +0 1.95%

Quotes

Symbol Price Change % Change
FB /quotes/zigman/9962609/composite 101.00 1.46 1.47%
AAPL /quotes/zigman/68270/composite 94.27 -0.72 -0.76%
GOOG /quotes/zigman/59527964/composite 684.12 6.01 0.89%
BAC /quotes/zigman/190927/composite 11.98 -0.22 -1.80%
C /quotes/zigman/5065548/composite 37.41 -0.10 -0.27%
F /quotes/zigman/264304/composite 11.34 -0.01 -0.09%
T /quotes/zigman/398198/composite 36.43 -0.22 -0.60%
BP /quotes/zigman/247026/composite 28.04 -0.31 -1.09%
GE /quotes/zigman/227468/composite 28.30 0.02 0.07%
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Rates »

5 yr CD
1.3%
2 yr CD
0.7%
1 yr CD
0.5%
MMA $10K+
0.2%
MMA $50K+
0.4%

National averages from Bankrate.com

You Don’t Need Another Credit Card, You Need A Better One.
Avg. APR Last Week 6 Months
Low Interest 11.96% 11.96% 11.62%
Business 13.12% 13.12% 12.85%
Student 13.42% 13.42% 13.14%
Balance Transfer 14.35% 14.35% 14.12%
Airline 15.17% 15.17% 15.10%
Cash Back 15.20% 15.26% 15.27%
Reward 15.25% 15.28% 15.14%
Instant Approval 18.02% 18.21% 18.00%
Bad Credit 22.56% 22.88% 22.73%
Source:CreditCards.com

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Stock Forecasts Fall, Managers Go Mum

Among a vast number of clues that have been found to predict stock performance, two bode particularly poor.  One just appeared and the other seems to be coming.

Getty Images

The first is a downward revision in earnings forecasts.  Analysts, like investors, tend to be slow to change existing assumptions about stocks when new information appears.  Historically, they’ve changed estimates little by little, with one revision leading to future ones in the same direction.  In the past three months, analysts have reduced estimates 20% more than they’ve raised them, according to new research by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

That’s important, because the argument that stocks are a good deal today rests in large part on shares being cheap relative to earnings.  If earnings are poised for a shortfall, shares might not be so cheap, something this column argued in June (see “The Invisible Stock Bubble“).

One footnote to this first clue offers a sliver of comfort.  BofA calculates that a typically downward revision cycle lasts a year and a half and drags share prices 14% lower.  This one is barely half a year old and, and since it began, investors have already lost more than 14%.  So perhaps the news is priced in.  If not, this cycle would be worse than usual.

The second dark clue is when earnings estimates become broadly scattered.  Poor earnings and stock returns tend to follow.  It remains to be seen whether “estimate dispersion” will increase as some forecasts are reduced, but the early evidence suggests it will.  Researchers theorize that analyst disagreement on forecasts is linked to companies clamming up on their own earnings projections, which they tend to do, as you might expect, when the projections are gloomy.  Currently, the fewest companies are issuing guidance in a decade, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

In this case, no news is probably not good news.

Comments

We welcome thoughtful comments from readers. Please comply with our guidelines. Our blogs do not require the use of your real name.

Comments (3 of 3)

View all Comments »
    • -1′

    • 1

    • Whatever, analysts have hardly impressed me over the past 5 years. Here’s what you shouldn’t trust: anyone who thinks he or she knows what’s going to happen in the future.

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MarketWatch - Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News
Bulletin
Investor Alert

New York Markets Open in:

Futures: /quotes/zigman/43106711/delayed S&P 500 -1.9% /quotes/zigman/48241424/delayed DOW -1.8% /quotes/zigman/43108768/delayed NASDAQ -2.2%

need to know
FTSE 100 hits lowest level since 2012
Sweden cuts key rate further below zero
SocGen profit up on Amundi stake sale
Shell cancels $14.4 billion bridge credit facility
Crude price pushes below $27 a barrel

Hong Kong stocks dive as selloff kicks in
U.S. government runs $55 billion budget surplus

Twitter proves Wall Street critics were right
Twitter adds new timeline feature

North Korea reportedly executes top general

India to pick up China’s slack in oil demand

BP CEO calls for cuts to carbon emissions
If you’re bullish on oil, these stocks are buys

Bass issues warning on China’s foreign cash reserves
What’s holding back the world economy?
China's FX reserves drop $99.47 bln


Yellen: Fed isn’t sure negative rates are legal
Yellen doesn’t expect to reverse Fed rate hike
Yellen gets into heated exchange at hearing
Bond market, Yellen face off on negative rates

Burger King to start selling hot dogs

Wendy's profit, revenue top estimates
McDonald’s breakfast boost may not last


Will falling oil prices bankrupt Saudis, Russians?
Cheap oil may make OPEC dominant again
As oil revenue drops, Gulf states ponder taxes
Will oil get so cheap, it won’t pay to extract it?

Christie, Fiorina drop out of presidential race

A break for zombie-fighting Amazon developers

Expedia doesn’t see Airbnb as a threat

What Apple, Amazon and Starbucks have in common
Amazon up after new share buyback plan

Portland Trail Blazers guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum live with ... mom
Meet the NBA stars who live with their mothers

REIT bonus targets at heart of Brixmor scandal

Private-equity firms now buying back their own shares

Has college financial aid totally backfired?

Michael Moore: Imagine life without student debt
6 ways Obama would make college affordable

Why is everyone freaking out about ‘CoCos’?

Social Security in the crosshairs: replacement rates again
Stage is being set for cuts to Social Security

Is it wise to hold on to cash reserves?

/conga/frontpage.html 367670

Markets »

122.29MDow Volume:
Avg Vol: 131.80M
Unchanged
201
Decliners
3048
Advancers
3255
Price Chg %Chg 1 Day
Range: 1 Day
  • 1 Day
  • 5 Days
  • 1 Month
  • 3 Months
  • 6 Months
  • 1 Year
  • 2 Years
Dow
/quotes/zigman/627449/realtime 15,915 -100 0.62%
Nasdaq
/quotes/zigman/12633936/realtime 4,284 +15 0.35%
S&P 500
/quotes/zigman/3870025/realtime 1,852 0 0.02%
GlobalDow
/quotes/zigman/629063/realtime 2,064 -16 0.78%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/33772884/delayed 1,225 +31 2.57%
Oil
/quotes/zigman/2260836/delayed 26.71 -0.74 2.70%
FTSE 100
/quotes/zigman/3173262/delayed 5,534 -139 2.44%
DAX
/quotes/zigman/2380246/delayed 8,782 -236 2.61%
CAC 40
/quotes/zigman/3173214/delayed 3,915 -146 3.59%
FTSE MIB
/quotes/zigman/1482176/delayed 15,923 -791 4.73%
IBEX 35
/quotes/zigman/2759620/delayed 7,843 -300 3.69%
Stoxx 600
/quotes/zigman/2380150/delayed 305 -10 3.23%
Asia Dow
/quotes/zigman/6959860/realtime 2,439 -14 0.59%
Nikkei 225
/quotes/zigman/5986735/delayed 15,713 -372 2.31%
Hang Seng
/quotes/zigman/2622475/delayed 18,546 -742 3.85%
Shanghai
/quotes/zigman/1859015/delayed 2,763 -18 0.63%
Sensex
/quotes/zigman/1652085/delayed 22,952 -807 3.40%
Singapore
/quotes/zigman/1709939/delayed 2,538 -44 1.70%
Euro
/quotes/zigman/16008136/realtime/sampled 1.13 +0.00 0.23%
Yen
/quotes/zigman/16008150/realtime/sampled 111.64 -1.71 1.51%
Pound
/quotes/zigman/16008140/realtime/sampled 1.45 -0.01 0.48%
Australia$
/quotes/zigman/16008115/realtime/sampled 0.70 0.00 0.66%
DXY Index
/quotes/zigman/1652083/delayed 95.55 -0.28 0.29%
WSJ $ Idx
/quotes/zigman/41508961/realtime 88.73 -0.16 0.17%
U.S. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866666/realtime 1.63 -0.04 2.53%
German 10y
/quotes/zigman/15866409/realtime 0.18 -0.06 25.81%
Italy 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866497/realtime 1.71 +0.07 4.10%
Spain 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866444/realtime 1.78 +0.06 3.59%
U.K. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866328/realtime 1.33 -0.08 5.82%
Japan 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866525/realtime 0.01 0.00 0.00%
Crude Oil
/quotes/zigman/2260836/delayed 27 -1 2.70%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/33772884/delayed 1,225 +31 2.57%
Corn
/quotes/zigman/25518691/delayed 361 +0 0.07%
DJIA F
/quotes/zigman/48241424/delayed 15,581 -285 1.80%
S&P F
/quotes/zigman/43106711/delayed 1,812 -35 1.87%
Silver
/quotes/zigman/32655632/delayed 16 +0 1.95%

Quotes

Symbol Price Change % Change
FB /quotes/zigman/9962609/composite 101.00 1.46 1.47%
AAPL /quotes/zigman/68270/composite 94.27 -0.72 -0.76%
GOOG /quotes/zigman/59527964/composite 684.12 6.01 0.89%
BAC /quotes/zigman/190927/composite 11.98 -0.22 -1.80%
C /quotes/zigman/5065548/composite 37.41 -0.10 -0.27%
F /quotes/zigman/264304/composite 11.34 -0.01 -0.09%
T /quotes/zigman/398198/composite 36.43 -0.22 -0.60%
BP /quotes/zigman/247026/composite 28.04 -0.31 -1.09%
GE /quotes/zigman/227468/composite 28.30 0.02 0.07%
Visit the quote page and your most recently viewed stocks will automatically be displayed here.
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Rates »

5 yr CD
1.3%
2 yr CD
0.7%
1 yr CD
0.5%
MMA $10K+
0.2%
MMA $50K+
0.4%

National averages from Bankrate.com

You Don’t Need Another Credit Card, You Need A Better One.
Avg. APR Last Week 6 Months
Low Interest 11.96% 11.96% 11.62%
Business 13.12% 13.12% 12.85%
Student 13.42% 13.42% 13.14%
Balance Transfer 14.35% 14.35% 14.12%
Airline 15.17% 15.17% 15.10%
Cash Back 15.20% 15.26% 15.27%
Reward 15.25% 15.28% 15.14%
Instant Approval 18.02% 18.21% 18.00%
Bad Credit 22.56% 22.88% 22.73%
Source:CreditCards.com

Top 3 from Barron's

Today's list of the most-viewed stories from Barron's. More »

  1. 1.
  2. 2.
  3. 3.

Visit Barrons.com

SPONSORED SECTIONS

Trending Tickers
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X
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