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Markets »

131.79MDow Volume:
Avg Vol: 112.32M
Unchanged
186
Decliners
2190
Advancers
4209
Price Chg %Chg 1 Day
Range: 1 Day
  • 1 Day
  • 5 Days
  • 1 Month
  • 3 Months
  • 6 Months
  • 1 Year
  • 2 Years
Dow
/quotes/zigman/627449/realtime 16,643 -12 0.07%
Nasdaq
/quotes/zigman/12633936/realtime 4,828 +16 0.32%
S&P 500
/quotes/zigman/3870025/realtime 1,989 +1 0.06%
GlobalDow
/quotes/zigman/629063/realtime 2,373 +13 0.54%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/662444/delayed 1,133 +11 0.95%
Oil
/quotes/zigman/2331095/delayed 45.33 +2.77 6.51%
FTSE 100
/quotes/zigman/3173262/delayed 6,248 +56 0.90%
DAX
/quotes/zigman/2380246/delayed 10,299 -17 0.17%
CAC 40
/quotes/zigman/3173214/delayed 4,675 +17 0.36%
FTSE MIB
/quotes/zigman/1482176/delayed 21,994 -208 0.93%
IBEX 35
/quotes/zigman/2759620/delayed 10,353 +63 0.61%
Stoxx 600
/quotes/zigman/2380150/delayed 363 +1 0.28%
Asia Dow
/quotes/zigman/6959860/realtime 2,798 +45 1.64%
Nikkei 225
/quotes/zigman/5986735/delayed 19,136 +562 3.03%
Hang Seng
/quotes/zigman/2622475/delayed 21,612 -226 1.04%
Shanghai
/quotes/zigman/1859015/delayed 3,232 +149 4.82%
Sensex
/quotes/zigman/1652085/delayed 26,392 +161 0.61%
Singapore
/quotes/zigman/1709939/delayed 2,956 +11 0.36%
Euro
/quotes/zigman/16008136/realtime/sampled 1.12 -0.01 0.54%
Yen
/quotes/zigman/16008150/realtime/sampled 121.70 +0.67 0.55%
Pound
/quotes/zigman/16008140/realtime/sampled 1.54 0.00 0.07%
Australia$
/quotes/zigman/16008115/realtime/sampled 0.72 +0.00 0.03%
DXY Index
/quotes/zigman/1652083/delayed 96.15 +0.38 0.40%
WSJ $ Idx
/quotes/zigman/41508961/realtime 88.50 +0.24 0.27%
U.S. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866666/realtime 2.18 0.00 0.12%
German 10y
/quotes/zigman/15866409/realtime 0.75 +0.00 0.17%
Italy 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866497/realtime 1.91 -0.02 0.80%
Spain 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866444/realtime 2.06 +0.01 0.26%
U.K. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866328/realtime 1.85 -0.02 0.96%
Japan 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866525/realtime 0.38 -0.01 2.48%
Crude Oil
/quotes/zigman/2331095/delayed 45 +3 6.51%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/662444/delayed 1,133 +11 0.95%
Corn
/quotes/zigman/7599553/delayed 374 -1 0.20%
DJIA F
/quotes/zigman/38649152/delayed 16,632 -18 0.11%
S&P F
/quotes/zigman/30356461/delayed 1,986 -3 0.15%
Silver
/quotes/zigman/3134148/delayed 15 +0 0.89%

Quotes

Symbol Price Change % Change
FB /quotes/zigman/9962609/composite 91.01 1.28 1.43%
AAPL /quotes/zigman/68270/composite 113.29 0.37 0.33%
GOOG /quotes/zigman/30194416/composite 630.38 -7.23 -1.13%
BAC /quotes/zigman/190927/composite 16.36 -0.08 -0.49%
C /quotes/zigman/5065548/composite 53.28 -0.16 -0.30%
F /quotes/zigman/264304/composite 13.74 0.18 1.33%
T /quotes/zigman/398198/composite 33.29 -0.15 -0.45%
BP /quotes/zigman/247026/composite 33.26 0.23 0.70%
GE /quotes/zigman/227468/composite 25.16 0.15 0.60%
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Rates »

5 yr CD
1.5%
2 yr CD
0.8%
1 yr CD
0.6%
MMA $10K+
0.3%
MMA $50K+
0.4%

National averages from Bankrate.com

You Don’t Need Another Credit Card, You Need A Better One.
Avg. APR Last Week 6 Months
Low Interest 11.62% 11.62% 11.53%
Business 12.85% 12.85% 12.85%
Student 13.14% 13.14% 13.14%
Balance Transfer 14.12% 14.12% 14.00%
Airline 15.10% 15.10% 15.15%
Reward 15.14% 15.14% 14.99%
Cash Back 15.27% 15.27% 15.26%
Instant Approval 18.00% 18.00% 17.93%
Bad Credit 22.73% 22.73% 22.48%
Source:CreditCards.com

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Stock Forecasts Fall, Managers Go Mum

Among a vast number of clues that have been found to predict stock performance, two bode particularly poor.  One just appeared and the other seems to be coming.

Getty Images

The first is a downward revision in earnings forecasts.  Analysts, like investors, tend to be slow to change existing assumptions about stocks when new information appears.  Historically, they’ve changed estimates little by little, with one revision leading to future ones in the same direction.  In the past three months, analysts have reduced estimates 20% more than they’ve raised them, according to new research by Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

That’s important, because the argument that stocks are a good deal today rests in large part on shares being cheap relative to earnings.  If earnings are poised for a shortfall, shares might not be so cheap, something this column argued in June (see “The Invisible Stock Bubble“).

One footnote to this first clue offers a sliver of comfort.  BofA calculates that a typically downward revision cycle lasts a year and a half and drags share prices 14% lower.  This one is barely half a year old and, and since it began, investors have already lost more than 14%.  So perhaps the news is priced in.  If not, this cycle would be worse than usual.

The second dark clue is when earnings estimates become broadly scattered.  Poor earnings and stock returns tend to follow.  It remains to be seen whether “estimate dispersion” will increase as some forecasts are reduced, but the early evidence suggests it will.  Researchers theorize that analyst disagreement on forecasts is linked to companies clamming up on their own earnings projections, which they tend to do, as you might expect, when the projections are gloomy.  Currently, the fewest companies are issuing guidance in a decade, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

In this case, no news is probably not good news.

Comments

We welcome thoughtful comments from readers. Please comply with our guidelines. Our blogs do not require the use of your real name.

Comments (3 of 3)

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    • -1′

    • 1

    • Whatever, analysts have hardly impressed me over the past 5 years. Here’s what you shouldn’t trust: anyone who thinks he or she knows what’s going to happen in the future.

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MarketWatch - Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News
Bulletin
Investor Alert
need to know
By this measure, worst is over for U.S. stocks
Staples, Office Depot to delay close of merger
PBF Energy chemical leak in Del. refinery
Drug maker Cortendo files for IPO
‘War Room’ could be box-office surprise
Oil scores biggest weekly gain since 2009
Ashley Madison CEO steps down
Amgen gets FDA OK for cholesterol treatment
Atlantic hurricanes lose sway over oil and gas
5 silly new words in the Oxford dictionary

Apple Watch debut stronger than previously thought: IDC
Apple to host Sept. 9 product event
Apple closes in on Fitbit in wearables

Craft beer acquisition by Duvel — stay small, stay beautiful
Firestone is latest U.S. brewer to join the Duvel family
10 fall beers with absolutely no pumpkin in them

Instead of flavored vodka, flavored sake?

Never use a market order when stocks are selling off
Schwab site hit by outages in busy trade stretch
Lack of fear means this correction isn’t finished

Most imposing stock ‘wall of worry’ in 5 years
Worried? With good advice, you won't be

John Bogle sees promise in market pullbacks
A strategy to make money in this crazy market
Record $29.5 billion yanked from stock funds

Roubini: Better early warning system is needed

Why you should worry and be happy that stocks aren’t a sure bet
Both worry, be happy that stocks aren’t a sure bet
This wild market is no threat to your income and spending

A sign for Moody's rating agency is displayed at the company headquarters in New York, September 18, 2012.  AFP PHOTO/Emmanuel Dunand        (Photo credit should read EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/GettyImages)
ADP debt-funded buyback raises Moody’s ire

Democratic leaders frustrated by Clinton’s handling of email issue
More frustration with Clinton on email issue
Poll shows Biden running stronger than Clinton
Trump: I’m OK with raising taxes on myself

Poland looks next to turn against the EU

China wins the Battle of Mountain Pass
China just undermined the U.S. Defense Department

China may be in worse shape than most of us think
What should China do to fix its economy?
Analysts dismiss fears of a China hard landing
‘Loch Ness monster’ and China's mystery rally

These are the best jobs for millennials
These are the best jobs for millennials


How momentum investing could go out of style
Momentum investing could be going out of style

Tesla Model S scores 103 on 100-point scale
Tesla Model S scores 103 on 100-point scale
Elon Musk retweets slow-driving Tesla owner
Colbert should ask Elon Musk, Kalanick this
$400,000 supercar goes up in flames

How to cope when you’re suddenly uninsured

/conga/frontpage.html 353617

Markets »

131.79MDow Volume:
Avg Vol: 112.32M
Unchanged
186
Decliners
2190
Advancers
4209
Price Chg %Chg 1 Day
Range: 1 Day
  • 1 Day
  • 5 Days
  • 1 Month
  • 3 Months
  • 6 Months
  • 1 Year
  • 2 Years
Dow
/quotes/zigman/627449/realtime 16,643 -12 0.07%
Nasdaq
/quotes/zigman/12633936/realtime 4,828 +16 0.32%
S&P 500
/quotes/zigman/3870025/realtime 1,989 +1 0.06%
GlobalDow
/quotes/zigman/629063/realtime 2,373 +13 0.54%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/662444/delayed 1,133 +11 0.95%
Oil
/quotes/zigman/2331095/delayed 45.33 +2.77 6.51%
FTSE 100
/quotes/zigman/3173262/delayed 6,248 +56 0.90%
DAX
/quotes/zigman/2380246/delayed 10,299 -17 0.17%
CAC 40
/quotes/zigman/3173214/delayed 4,675 +17 0.36%
FTSE MIB
/quotes/zigman/1482176/delayed 21,994 -208 0.93%
IBEX 35
/quotes/zigman/2759620/delayed 10,353 +63 0.61%
Stoxx 600
/quotes/zigman/2380150/delayed 363 +1 0.28%
Asia Dow
/quotes/zigman/6959860/realtime 2,798 +45 1.64%
Nikkei 225
/quotes/zigman/5986735/delayed 19,136 +562 3.03%
Hang Seng
/quotes/zigman/2622475/delayed 21,612 -226 1.04%
Shanghai
/quotes/zigman/1859015/delayed 3,232 +149 4.82%
Sensex
/quotes/zigman/1652085/delayed 26,392 +161 0.61%
Singapore
/quotes/zigman/1709939/delayed 2,956 +11 0.36%
Euro
/quotes/zigman/16008136/realtime/sampled 1.12 -0.01 0.54%
Yen
/quotes/zigman/16008150/realtime/sampled 121.70 +0.67 0.55%
Pound
/quotes/zigman/16008140/realtime/sampled 1.54 0.00 0.07%
Australia$
/quotes/zigman/16008115/realtime/sampled 0.72 +0.00 0.03%
DXY Index
/quotes/zigman/1652083/delayed 96.15 +0.38 0.40%
WSJ $ Idx
/quotes/zigman/41508961/realtime 88.50 +0.24 0.27%
U.S. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866666/realtime 2.18 0.00 0.12%
German 10y
/quotes/zigman/15866409/realtime 0.75 +0.00 0.17%
Italy 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866497/realtime 1.91 -0.02 0.80%
Spain 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866444/realtime 2.06 +0.01 0.26%
U.K. 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866328/realtime 1.85 -0.02 0.96%
Japan 10yr
/quotes/zigman/15866525/realtime 0.38 -0.01 2.48%
Crude Oil
/quotes/zigman/2331095/delayed 45 +3 6.51%
Gold
/quotes/zigman/662444/delayed 1,133 +11 0.95%
Corn
/quotes/zigman/7599553/delayed 374 -1 0.20%
DJIA F
/quotes/zigman/38649152/delayed 16,632 -18 0.11%
S&P F
/quotes/zigman/30356461/delayed 1,986 -3 0.15%
Silver
/quotes/zigman/3134148/delayed 15 +0 0.89%

Quotes

Symbol Price Change % Change
FB /quotes/zigman/9962609/composite 91.01 1.28 1.43%
AAPL /quotes/zigman/68270/composite 113.29 0.37 0.33%
GOOG /quotes/zigman/30194416/composite 630.38 -7.23 -1.13%
BAC /quotes/zigman/190927/composite 16.36 -0.08 -0.49%
C /quotes/zigman/5065548/composite 53.28 -0.16 -0.30%
F /quotes/zigman/264304/composite 13.74 0.18 1.33%
T /quotes/zigman/398198/composite 33.29 -0.15 -0.45%
BP /quotes/zigman/247026/composite 33.26 0.23 0.70%
GE /quotes/zigman/227468/composite 25.16 0.15 0.60%
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Rates »

5 yr CD
1.5%
2 yr CD
0.8%
1 yr CD
0.6%
MMA $10K+
0.3%
MMA $50K+
0.4%

National averages from Bankrate.com

You Don’t Need Another Credit Card, You Need A Better One.
Avg. APR Last Week 6 Months
Low Interest 11.62% 11.62% 11.53%
Business 12.85% 12.85% 12.85%
Student 13.14% 13.14% 13.14%
Balance Transfer 14.12% 14.12% 14.00%
Airline 15.10% 15.10% 15.15%
Reward 15.14% 15.14% 14.99%
Cash Back 15.27% 15.27% 15.26%
Instant Approval 18.00% 18.00% 17.93%
Bad Credit 22.73% 22.73% 22.48%
Source:CreditCards.com

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